Jakarta - The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) captured many trade opportunities between Indonesia and the United States (US) during a visit to Uncle Sam's country and met many entrepreneurs there.

With the existing opportunities, Chairman of Kadin Indonesia Anindya Novyan Bakrie revealed that the value of Indonesia-US trade could exceed US$80 billion or double after the reciprocal tariff negotiation process. In fact, Anin, his nickname, is optimistic that the value of trade between the two countries can reach US$120 billion in the next four years.

‘Our prediction at Kadin is that between exports and imports (Indonesia-US) is 39-40 billion US dollars approximately. Within 2-3 years, if we are clever, it can be from 40-80 billion US dollars. In 4 years, it could be US$120 billion. If we deal with it properly,’ said Anin in a press conference related to the results of his visit to the US in Jakarta, Friday (9/5/2025).

Anin detailed that US President Donald Trump holds data that records the value of Indonesia's exports to the US at around US$25 billion and imports at US$13 billion. Thus, the total trade value between the two countries is currently around US$40 billion.

Kadin is optimistic that the trade value can double to US$80 billion in the next 2-3 years. This is because Indonesia's trade surplus against the US, which is around US$18 billion, is planned to be balanced. This is related to tariff negotiations opened by the US with a request for Indonesia-US export-import values to be equal.

Thus, the value of imports from the US will increase by US$18 billion to balance the trade balance so that the total trade between the two countries is predicted to rise to US$58 billion or nearly US$60 billion.

‘The remaining US$20 billion will come from both sides export-importing each other. We will export more because the United States does not accept (imports) from some countries, such as China,’ Anin explained.

Then, Indonesia's trade opportunities for the US are also open to the textile and textile products (TPT) sector, such as footwear. Thus, gradually, Indonesia can increase exports worth US$10 billion. As a result, the value of trade between Indonesia and the US can increase again to 60-70 billion US dollars.

Conversely, the US has export opportunities in the form of food commodities, such as soybeans, wheat, milk, and meat to Indonesia.

Thus, the projected trade value of US$80 billion is very likely to be realised. In fact, the trade value could increase to US$120 billion or almost equal to the trade value between Indonesia and China, which reached US$130 billion.

‘Remember, if 120 billion US dollars is already starting to equal the trade (between Indonesia) China which is 130 billion US dollars. Again, this is full of notes because Kadin is not the one negotiating with the government. But the potential is there, because it is needed and both parties want to trade more,’ he said.

Indonesia has the opportunity to sell carbon credits and critical minerals
On the same occasion, Anin predicted that the US is projected not to fully exit the Paris Agreement. Thus, Indonesia has a number of opportunities to sell or increase trade in carbon credits, to critical minerals that are widely available in the country.

Anin caught the signal while attending the Bloomberg New Energy Forum (NEF) Summit 2025 on 29-30 April 2025. The event was attended by Presidential Envoy for Climate Change and Energy Hashim S. Djojohadikusumo, who is also Chairman of the Advisory Board of Kadin Indonesia.

‘This forum focused on discussing energy transition, climate, environment. There were meetings with various stakeholders in the energy sector. Although President Trump decided to leave the Paris Agreement, two-thirds of the 50 states said they wanted to continue,’ Anin explained.

In fact, he continued, the largest oil and gas producer in the US, Texas, is actually the state that uses the most wind energy and solar power to generate electricity.

‘That's where we feel that this may not necessarily be forever the American central government (wants to leave the Paris Agreement). There are a lot of people there who want to be interested in investing in critical minerals, especially, then new renewable energy, as well as carbon capture,’ said Anin.

Therefore, Kadin and the presidential envoy promoted Indonesia as a centre for decarbonisation. With its vast tropical forests, Indonesia generates carbon credits through forest conservation, reforestation or sustainable land management projects.

The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) project allows Indonesia to be recognised for emissions prevented through forest protection.

‘Indonesia is also preserving the biodiversity around us which one day can be a good carbon capture and carbon market. So that's why we are looking for partners and there are many who are very interested,’ said Anin.

Indonesia has the potential to sell carbon credits to the US through international carbon trading mechanisms, such as the Indonesian carbon exchange or IDX Carbon. The exchange has launched a carbon credit certificate offering for international buyers, including potential buyers from the US to help achieve net-zero emissions targets.

‘For Indonesia, climate, transitional energy and the environment are life issues because we are an archipelago, if the water rises, we will all be destroyed. Furthermore, Indonesia also has the potential to process its critical minerals with renewable energy capabilities,’ said Anin.

The team also informed the US that Indonesia has many critical minerals that can be processed such as nickel, copper, zinc, bauxite, and gold. Anin emphasised that US investment opportunities in these commodities still prioritise added value in the country, with mineral processing before export.

‘On the ground, we have the ability to renewable energy, even in PLN's RUPTL for the next 15 years alone, 103 gigawatts, 75 per cent of which is renewable energy,’ she added.

Rare minerals are raw materials for electric vehicles (EVs) that the US also needs. Businessmen in Uncle Sam's country hope that Indonesia will export critical minerals to the US and the US can build a critical mineral processing plant in Indonesia.

Critical minerals are minerals that are very important to the economy and very important in the energy transition. However, they are very scarce. Critical minerals that are urgently needed for clean energy technologies include nickel, cobalt and lithium, which are key ingredients in EV batteries. There is also copper, an important mineral for power grids and renewable energy systems.