Global economic turmoil throughout 2025, including the reciprocal impact of tariffs, posed a major challenge to the national economy. However, national economic stability was maintained through a series of responsive and collaborative policies. The government continued to ensure that business activity, public consumption and the investment climate remained strong so that global pressures did not hamper the domestic economy.

Amidst these external dynamics, a number of fundamental indicators of the national economy show a positive trend. Consumer confidence rose from 121.4 in October to 124 in November, while the Real Sales Index is estimated to grow by 5.9% (yoy) in November. Manufacturing activity also recorded strong expansion with the PMI reaching 53.3, the highest since February. Inflation also remained under control at 2.72% (yoy), and credit growth reached 7.36% (yoy).

"Well, public spending has been high and the IHSG is also green. We have 24 IPOs this year, raising Rp15.2 trillion, and as of December there are 13 companies ready in the pipeline, 7 of which are large companies, which certainly shows optimism in the market and seems to spill over into January. The hope is that if January is positive, the January effect will lead us to a better economy in 2026," said Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto during his keynote speech at the 37th Anniversary Celebration of the Indonesian Issuers Association on Friday (12/12).

For 2026, upside risks are expected to be more dominant than downside risks. Therefore, the government is optimistic that economic growth in 2026 can reach the target of 5.4%. In line with this, various important achievements in the international trade agenda increasingly support future economic prospects. The completion of cooperation with the United States, which is currently being carried out by the government, marks a major step in completing almost the entire trade agenda in 2025. Indonesia has also completed the IEU-CEPA negotiations, which are targeted to take effect in 2027. In addition, the OECD accession process is showing strong and visible progress, with various countries hoping that Indonesia can join the OECD as a member in 2027.

Furthermore, Coordinating Minister Airlangga also reported on the progress of tariff negotiations with the United States through direct communication with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer. Both parties agreed to finalise the agreement in the Leaders Declaration on 22 July 2025. The Indonesian delegation is also scheduled to return to Washington D.C. in the near future, with the target of finalising the agreement by the end of the year as directed by President Prabowo Subianto.

In addition to strengthening international relations, the Government is also promoting domestic economic activity through a series of year-end stimulus programmes. Ahead of the year-end holiday period and Eid al-Fitr, various incentives will be implemented, such as transportation discounts from 22 December 2025 to 10 January 2026, the EPIC Sale national shopping programme with a transaction target of IDR 56 trillion, the Harbolnas programme with a target of IDR 34 trillion, and the BINA programme with a target of IDR 30 trillion. All these measures are expected to strengthen public spending and maintain the momentum of consumer spending.

On this occasion, Coordinating Minister Airlangga explained that the Government continues to make rapid and coordinated efforts to deal with floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra, in line with President Prabowo Subianto's directives. Alongside emergency response measures, the Government is also preparing a special economic policy package for KUR debtors and affected worker groups, through restructuring policies, accelerating the recovery of disaster-affected areas through the disbursement of new KUR loans in 2026, to repayment options for certain KUR debtors, a policy of writing off BPJS Ketenagakerjaan fines for employers affected by disasters, and easier JHT/JKM/JKK/JP claim services.

Of the total 996 thousand KUR debtors in the three provinces, around 141 thousand debtors with outstanding debts of around Rp7.79 trillion (18.2%) are projected to be affected. The figures and technicalities of the policy are still being finalised and a comprehensive verification is currently being carried out to ensure that the policy is on target. In the coming days, the Government will announce a special economic policy package for disaster recovery.

Also present at the event were the Expert Staff for Regional Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, the Head of the Remittance and Public Companies Supervisory Department at the Financial Services Authority, the Director of Company Assessment at the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the Board of Commissioners of PT Bursa Efek Indonesia, the President Director of PT Keliring Penjaminan Efek Indonesia, the Director of Infrastructure Development and Information Management of PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia, and the Chairman of the Indonesian Issuers Association. (dft/fsr)

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Spokesperson for the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs
Haryo Limanseto

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